Threat Analyst Ken Abramowitz is the author of “The Multifront War”
Editor: Dr. Rachel Ehrenfeld, President, American Center for Democracy (ACD)
The Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) is not an ordinary government in any sense. It is a radical Shiite Muslim cabal of fanatics, known as the “Twelvers,” who believe Allah ordered them to cause as much havoc in the world as they can, and sacrifice their lives by fighting and killing all infidels (i.e. Christian, Jews, and all other non-believers). The Twelvers believe that the chaos and mayhem would lead to the re-emergence of the hidden Twelfth Imam as the Mahdi (Messiah) who will lead Islam’s conquest of the world. When Ayatollah Khomeini, the leader of this movement, took over Iran in 1979, he declared the main enemies were the United States and Israel, and coined the slogans: “Death to America” and “Death to Israel”.
This fanatical ideology of the autocratic regime makes any attempt at negotiation pointless. The IRI’s current Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei — who has not been seen in public since February 28, since he was reportedly severely wounded, when Israel eliminated his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — is the only one in the regime who can authorize any compromise. Moreover, the cruel and corrupt regime is said to fear for their lives because some 85% of the population is said to detest them for stealing the country’s wealth and bankrupting the economy.
The American and Israeli air forces just finished a very successful bombing campaign, hitting over 12,000 targets each, including the elimination of members of the regime, commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), nuclear program facilities and scientists, petrochemical, steel, and other critical infrastructure, ports, bridges, and railways, among others. However, 3,500 targets were chosen by Trump for attack before the two-week pause was called, to allow for the first round of talks in Pakistan, which ended inconclusively.
Iran claimed control over the Strait of Hormuz, which the Trump Administration promptly reversed by sending two destroyers through the Strait, along with numerous underwater drones to eliminate the threat of mines, and the American Navy began blockading ships carrying Iranian oil. According to the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD), this move, if implemented, could cost Iran about $13 billion per month, which would destroy what remained of Iran’s economy within a few months. Three days later, President Trump and the Iranians declared Hormuz is “open”. A day later, Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, and its forces fired on two tankers in the Strait. Subsequently, the US Navy disabled an Iranian cargo ship and took over control of the ship and its contents. The American blockade of Iranian ports and ships continues.
A second round of negotiations is supposed to begin within days. If Iran attacks either American warships or tankers going through the Straits, the American kinetic response would be disastrous for Iran. So, what might happen?
We foresee the following plausible scenarios:
1) Since Iran is incapable of negotiating seriously, America strengthens its hold over the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian economy and government will implode within months, allowing for a genuine Regime Change.
2) The IRGC forces take over total control of Iran by killing as many citizens as they can. However, they soon will run out of money.
3) Some of the 31 provinces could have successful uprisings, particularly among the 50% of the population that is not Persian and represent a wide variety of minorities.
4) A new transitional government led by the former Shah’s son, Reza Pahlavi, with or without a coalition of exiled opposition groups, could take the lead temporarily, to prepare a new constitutional monarchy or constitutional republic.
5) Chaos prevails as the 47-year failed experiment of the radical Islamist regime comes to a violent end. The IRI’s new regime refused America’s agreement, attacked tankers in Hormuz, and renewed bombing of Israel and America’s Arab Gulf allies. Iran orders the Houthis to resume missile attacks on Israel and the Gulf states, and/or ships seeking entry to the Suez Canal, and activates all its affiliated Iraqi Shia militia to increase mayhem in the Middle East, as well as its cells throughout the world. The US and Israel resume bombarding and eliminating Iranian targets. The IRI regime collapses within a month.
6) A politically expedient deal, one that meets America’s conditions but keeps the current IRGC-led government in power, is signed. But since enforcement mechanisms are lacking, Iran immediately begins cheating, and rebuilding its power. Both sides declare “victory”, but the final showdown is pushed to another day.
All of the above could happen. We hope for options 1 and 4.
7) All mosques and universities should be monitored for anti-Christian, antisemitic, and anti-constitutional behavior. Violators in mosques and universities should be arrested or deported quickly.
8) The Federal government should compensate all states for their programs to monitor the state of affairs of all relevant schoolbooks in K-12 schools, teacher colleges, and universities. Only US-published books should be allowed. No enemy-placed false narratives should be allowed. Each state should be encouraged to set up hotlines for discriminated Christians and Jews to lodge complaints, directly to their Governor, that must be resolved in two weeks.
